River stream flow prediction through advanced machine learning models for enhanced accuracy

Abstract

The Narmada River basin, a significant water resource in central India, plays a crucial role in supporting agricultural, industrial, and domestic water supply. Effective management of this basin requires accurate streamflow forecasting, which has become increasingly important. This study delves into streamflow forecasting using historical data from five major river stations, covering the upper reaches in the East and middle sections. The dataset spans from 1978 to 2020 and undergoes rigorous screening and preparation, including normalization using StandardScaler. The research adopts a comprehensive approach, developing models for training on 70 % of historical data, validation on the most current 15 %, and testing against future targets with another 15 % of the data. To achieve precise predictions, a suite of machine learning models is employed, including CatBoost, LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine), Random Forest, and XGBoost. Performance evaluation of these models relies on key indices such as mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), root mean square percent error (RMSPE), normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE), and R-squared (R2). Notably, among these models, Random Forest emerges as the most robust for streamflow prediction, showcasing its effectiveness in handling the complexities of hydrological forecasting. This research contributes significantly to the field of streamflow forecasting in the Narmada River basin by providing insights into the performance of various machine learning models. The findings not only enhance our understanding of watershed dynamics but also highlight the pivotal role that machine learning can play in improving hydrological forecasting for sustainable watershed management.