River Flashiness in Great Britain: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Abstract

Flashiness refers to the rapidity and frequency of fluctuations in river flow. It can provide insights into flooding, by capturing dramatic increases in river flow, as well as contaminant transport, relating to concentrations of diffuse pollution. Despite a very well gauged river system, there is limited research in Great Britain targeting this component of river flow. This study addresses that gap in knowledge, with a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of river flashiness in Great Britain. Using 513 gauging stations, with historical records of at least 30 years, the average Richards–Baker flashiness index (RBI¯) was calculated for 1990–2020, showing an overall west- (0.6–0.8) to east-coast (0.1–0.2) gradient, being higher in the west (with the exception of some gauges in the south-east). Employing random forest models, the main predictor for flashiness was found to be soil composition, with some additional region-specific predictors. These include flood attenuation by reservoirs and catchment areas, affecting flashiness in the north and west of Great Britain. Additionally, using a subset of 208 gauging stations with data recorded from 1970 to 2020, a temporal analysis examined significant breakpoints and/or trends in yearly flashiness, using the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test, respectively. Increases in flashiness were found mainly in the north-east and south-west of Great Britain, with implications in flooding and river health. On a seasonal scale, and using a monthly RBI¯, the timing of flashy events was found to oscillate between autumn and spring over the 50 years, gravitating around winter.