Rivalry in East Africa: The case of the Uganda-Kenya crude oil pipeline and the East Africa crude oil pipeline

Abstract

Uganda and Kenya agreed to jointly build the Uganda-Kenya crude oil pipeline (UKCOP) in 2014. The planned pipeline benefited from a history of common cross-border projects as well as a shared interest to monetize their respective oil reserves. Nevertheless, Uganda soon jettisoned the pipeline across Kenya in favour of the East Africa crude oil pipeline (EACOP) through Tanzania. This article identifies the root causes behind the demise of the UKCOP and the decision made to build the EACOP. Using data collected over seven years, including expert interviews, the results show that landlocked Uganda's overreliance on a politically volatile Kenya helped it to overcome its mistrust of Tanzanian sluggishness. Kampala's decision was further assisted by oil majors willing to source funding for a pipeline that avoided Kenya. The implications have directly affected the political economy of East Africa's oil exports and the relationship between its largest states.