Abstract
Subject Yemen partition prospects. Significance The August 6 launch by the Huthis and loyalists of former President Ali Abdallah Saleh of a joint ruling body to govern Yemen has led to the collapse of peace talks, and an escalation in the conflict with forces aligned to Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The UN has said that the creation of the Supreme Political Council (SPC) violates Security Council resolutions on resolving the conflict. It also brings Yemen a step closer towards the creation of a new central government in Sana'a rivalling Hadi's government based in Aden. Impacts A new UN peace initiative is unlikely to succeed unless there is a major change in the military situation. Prolonged conflict in Yemen will distract Saudi focus and resources from its domestic economic reform programme. Large-scale humanitarian relief and reconstruction will only begin following a (currently unlikely) deal on a unity government.
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