“Risky Business”

Abstract

Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending. — —Maria Robinson Although the Framingham Risk Score forms the bedrock of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction, it has several limitations that have been well documented.1 The clinician is left to manage a significant proportion of patients who have “low to intermediate” estimated risk but accrue the majority of CHD events because they form the majority (≈65%) of the population. Article p 382 To address these deficiencies in the prediction of risk, several investigators have included other markers of risk such as biomarkers related to inflammation, genotypes, or imaging tests with traditional risk factors to improve CHD risk prediction. These analyses have resulted in the creation of novel risk-prediction schemes such as the Reynolds risk score, which added family history and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) to blood pressure, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1C to predict risk.2 However, whether algorithms have used biomarkers such as hs-CRP, imaging tests such as coronary calcium score or carotid intima-media thickness, or novel genotypes such as the single-nucleotide polymorphism on chromosome 9p21, the improvements in risk prediction have been modest. Other investigators have suggested that anybody who is not at very low risk should get an imaging test to further stratify risk.3 On the other hand, there have been efforts to identify the “lifetime risk” of CHD for individuals in various age groups. The concept of lifetime risk was highlighted in the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines4 and is an important one, especially for individuals who are young to middle-aged. Traditional risk factors become manifest more often in the 4th and 5th decades of life when the estimated lifespan based on …