Risks and Constraints of Sub-Federal Politics in Russia under Vladimir Putin

Abstract

Russia’s political system can be best understood as an electoral patronal regime in which key actors are organized into a single pyramid of authority that dominates the political arena, particularly in the ethnic republics. It is argued that the asymmetric federalization of post-Soviet Russia and centralization of governance were stabilizing for the state because, during the tumultuous transition from Communism, they have acted as counterweights to such centrifugal forces as nationalism and religious radicalism. The article addresses this question: Does the political regime under Putin limit the behaviour of regional elites by structuring and prioritizing their agendas or, on the contrary, does this regime gradually devolve to match the underlying political configuration of the state? The article concludes that in multi-ethnic hybrid regimes that preserve contested elections, as does Russia, regional politics matters more than in typical authoritarian regimes. Since Putin’s popularity and power are closely tied to Russia’s economic stability and anti-Western sentiment, protracted economic stagnation coupled with growing social discontent at the regional level will trigger a long-awaited centrifugal change in political authority and may eventually lead to political fragmentation after Putin.