Risk–benefit analyses of SG tube maintenance based on probabilistic fracture mechanics

Abstract

As an application of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM), a risk–benefit analysis was performed for the purpose of optimizing maintenance activities of steam generator (SG) tubes used in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The probabilities of the SG tube leakage and rupture are defined as risks in this study. A model was made modifying pc-PRAISE (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) to evaluate the risks during 60 year operations due to stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of the tubes under various maintenance strategies for SG tubes. In the risk analysis, parameters such as inspection accuracy, inspection interval, sampling inspection and crack propagation law were selected for sensitivity analysis. Based on the risk analysis, a risk–benefit analysis was conducted when implementing two maintenance strategies taking both costs and revenues for 60 year operations into account. In the risk–benefit analysis, the expected cost of leakage or rupture was calculated by multiplying ‘probability of leakage or rupture’ by ‘expected loss of leakage or rupture accident’. To justify whether it is worthwhile implementing the maintenance strategies or not, the net present value (NPV) was calculated as an index, which is one of the most fundamental financial indices for decision-making based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. The results demonstrated that in the risk analysis, the risks are influenced significantly by the crack propagation law, accuracy of inspection and sampling inspection. In the risk–benefit analysis, it was suggested that investment to improve inspection accuracy would reduce the total costs of 60 year operations significantly and increase the NPV. Although the analysis was mainly conducted for SG tubes made of Inconel 600 mill anneal (MA) material, the analysis was also carried out for Inconel 690 thermal treatment (TT) material, making assumptions on its crack initiation and crack propagation law. In addition, the effect of introducing maintenance criteria, namely, operation with a crack justified by certain criteria, on NPV was evaluated.