Abstract
Assessment of dynamic stability in a modern power system (PS) is becoming a stringent requirement both in operational planning and in on-line operation, due to the increasingly complex dynamics of a PS. Further, growing uncertainties in forecast state and in the response to disturbances suggests the adoption of risk-based approaches in Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA). The present paper describes a probabilistic risk-based DSA, which provides instability risk indicators by combining an innovative probabilistic hazard/vulnerability analysis with the assessment of contingency impacts via time domain simulation. The tool implementing the method can be applied to both current and forecast PS states, the latter characterized in terms of renewable and load forecast uncertainties, providing valuable results for operation and operational planning contexts. Some results from a real PS model are discussed.
Highlights
IntroductionThe increasing complexity of power system (PS) dynamics, due to the penetration of non-synchronously connected generation, make the assessment of instability phenomena a fundamental need in security analyses, both in real time operation and in operational planning
The increasing complexity of power system (PS) dynamics, due to the penetration of non-synchronously connected generation, make the assessment of instability phenomena a fundamental need in security analyses, both in real time operation and in operational planning.the need to address multiple contingencies, potentially leading to widespread blackouts, suggests Transmission System Operators (TSOs) adopting risk-based approaches [1] to assess power system (PS) security.Probabilistic risk-based approaches have been adopted for many decades in power system planning [2], but are relatively new in security assessment for operational context, where the N-1 criterion is still deemed to be a good tradeoff between completeness and computational time
This paper presents the innovative Risk-Based Dynamic Security Assessment (RB-DSA) approach developed within the EU FP7 Project AFTER (A Framework for electrical power sysTems vulnerability identification, dEfense and Restoration)
Summary
The increasing complexity of power system (PS) dynamics, due to the penetration of non-synchronously connected generation, make the assessment of instability phenomena a fundamental need in security analyses, both in real time operation and in operational planning. The RB-DSA represents an important step forward with respect to more conventional risk-based approach, such as [3], because the proposed methodology does not compute the failure probabilities from historical records but from short-term forecasts of hazards and from vulnerability curves of components, linking Hazard Analysis to Contingency Planning, which up to now have been considered as separate “problems” This is an added value with respect to IS systems: the IS training set is built starting from a plausible PS states elaborated on the basis of historical data, which does not assure the good performance of such tools in case of inadvertent “new” states occurring in the future.
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