Abstract
The real world is full of random phenomena, complicating predictions of future changes in water resources, hence probabilistic distributions can assist in understanding their potential effects. Uncertainties could be unintended consequences of intentional changes in accidental phenomena which are part of decision making and policymaking in water resource management, and their disregard for decreasing the reliability and risk of water resource systems. Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis are two processes that can be used to simulate unexpected changes and improve the usefulness of the results of modeling water resource systems. Also, because water resource systems are always associated with natural phenomena, they can be analyzed by the aid of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to examine different effects of the phenomena on these systems. In this chapter, the general components of water resources systems, and the concepts and terminology related to uncertainty in these systems are presented. furthermore, it has been proposed to introduce the uncertainty and necessity of its review in water resources systems, the basic principles of statistical methods and probability, and various methods. The analysis and evaluation of the failure to solve problems in modeling, simulation, and optimization of water resources systems have been addressed. In the end, due to the importance of the performance criteria of water resource systems in evaluating and analyzing these systems, it introduces common performance criteria in their performance evaluation.
Published Version
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