Risk stratification model for incidentally detected gallbladder polyps: A multicentre study

Abstract

PurposeWe aimed to develop a 4-level risk stratification model using a scoring system based on conventional ultrasound to improve the diagnosis of gallbladder polyp. MethodPatients with histopathologically confirmed gallbladder polyps were consecutively recruited from three medical centres. Conventional ultrasound findings and clinical characteristics were acquired prior to cholecystectomy. Risk factors for neoplastic and malignant polyps were used to build a risk stratification system via interobserver agreement and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The model was retrospectively trained using 264 pre-surgical samples and prospectively validated using 106 pre-surgical samples. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and malignant polyp rate. ResultsIn total, 370 patients (mean age, 51.68 ± 14.41 years, 156 men) were enrolled in this study. Size (≥12 mm), shape (oblate or round), single, vascularity, gallbladder stone or sludge were considered risk factors for neoplastic polyps. Size (≥14 mm), shape (oblate), single, disrupted gallbladder wall, and gallbladder stone or sludge were risk factors for malignant polyps (all p < 0.05). In the scoring system, the sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of score ≥ 9 in diagnosing neoplastic polyps were 0.766, 0.788, and 0.876 respectively; and the sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of score ≥ 15 in diagnosing malignant polyps were 0.844, 0.926, and 0.949 respectively. In our model, the malignancy rates at the four levels were 0 % (0/24), 1.28 % (2/156), 9.26 % (5/54), and 70.37 % (38/54), respectively. ConclusionsThe 4-level risk stratification model based on conventional ultrasound imaging showed excellent performance in classifying gallbladder polyps.