Risk stratification for overall survival and recurrence-free survival after R0 resection for solitary intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma based on preoperative MRI and clinical features

Abstract

PurposeThis study aimed to establish two nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with solitary intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) based on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features. MethodsThis retrospective study included 120 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with solitary IMCC. Preoperative MRI and clinical features were collected. Based on the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, two nomograms were constructed to predict OS and RFS, respectively. The effective performance of the nomograms was evaluated using concordance index (C-index). The prognostic stratification systems for OS and RFS were developed and used to classify patients into high- and low-risk groups. ResultsSuspicious lymph nodes, arterial phase (AP) enhancement patterns, and bile duct dilatation were independent predictors of OS, while suspicious lymph nodes, AP enhancement patterns, and necrosis were independent predictors of RFS. The nomograms achieved the C-index values of 0.705/0.710 for OS and 0.721/0.759 for RFS in the development/validation cohorts, which were significantly higher than those of the T and TNM stages (P < 0.05). Patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups, the 1-year OS and RFS rates of high-risk patients were poorer than those of patients with low-risk in the development cohort (OS: 93.5% vs 76.3%, P < 0.001; RFS: 74.5% vs 22.4%, P < 0.001). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort. ConclusionsTwo nomograms were constructed based on preoperative MRI features in patients with solitary IMCC for predicting the OS and RFS and facilitate further prognostic stratification.