Nomogram based on preoperative clinical and MRI features to estimate the microvascular invasion status and the prognosis of solitary intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma.

Abstract

To develop a nomogram based on preoperative clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features for the microvascular invasion (MVI) status in solitary intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (sIMCC) and to evaluate whether it could predict recurrence-free survival (RFS). We included 115 cases who experienced MRI examinations for sIMCC with R0 resection. The preoperative clinical and MRI features were extracted. Independent predictors related to MVI+ were evaluated by stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram was constructed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive ability. All patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups of MVI. Then, the correlations of the nomogram with RFS in patents with sIMCC were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method. The occurrence rate of MVI+ was 38.3% (44/115). The preoperative independent predictors of MVI+ were carbohydrate antigen 19-9 >37U/ml, tumor size >5cm, and an ill-defined tumor boundary. Integrating these predictors, the nomogram exerted a favorable diagnostic performance with areas under the ROC curve of 0.767 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.654-0.881) in the development cohort, and 0.760 (95% CI 0.591-0.929) in the validation cohort. In the RFS analysis, significant differences were observed between the high- and low-risk MVI groups (6-month RFS rates: 64.5% vs. 78.8% and 46.7% vs. 82.4% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively) (P<0.05). A nomogram based on clinical and MRI features is a potential biomarker of MVI and may be a potent method to classify the risk of recurrence in patients with sIMCC.