Risk response for critical infrastructures with multiple interdependent risks: A scenario-based extended CBR approach

Abstract

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are elementary utility systems that maintain the normal society functioning. However, various risks constantly emerge, resulting in widespread human and economic losses. Effective risk response for CIs is a challenging task because of extreme time sensitivity. Especially, multiple risks and interdependencies among them also increase the response difficulties. To promptly generate effective response strategies for CIs with multiple interdependent risks, a scenario-based extended case-based reasoning (CBR) approach by combining the risk network and ontological modeling is proposed in this study. First, a three-stage solution framework is constructed. Subsequently, the historical cases are represented based on a scenario analysis and ontology model. A new case retrieval mechanism including three similarity measures and corresponding algorithm is proposed to precisely retrieve the most similar historical case, and the retrieved response strategies are adapted according to the risk loss severity and risk interdependencies. Furthermore, a case study is conducted to verify the practicability and superiorities of the proposed approach, and the necessity of considering multiple interdependent risks in CI risk response. It is indicated that the study provides a more suitable tool for CI risk response in risk interdependent scenarios, which is beneficial to the effectiveness of risk response in reality.