Abstract
PurposeIncidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer have been rapidly increasing in Korea during last few decades. Development of risk prediction models for colorectal cancer in Korean men and women is urgently needed to enhance its prevention and early detection.MethodsGender specific five-year risk prediction models were developed for overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, distal colon cancer, colon cancer and rectal cancer. The model was developed using data from a population of 846,559 men and 479,449 women who participated in health examinations by the National Health Insurance Corporation. Examinees were 30–80 years old and free of cancer in the baseline years of 1996 and 1997. An independent population of 547,874 men and 415,875 women who participated in 1998 and 1999 examinations was used to validate the model. Model validation was done by evaluating its performance in terms of discrimination and calibration ability using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow-type chi-square statistics.ResultsAge, body mass index, serum cholesterol, family history of cancer, and alcohol consumption were included in all models for men, whereas age, height, and meat intake frequency were included in all models for women. Models showed moderately good discrimination ability with C-statistics between 0.69 and 0.78. The C-statistics were generally higher in the models for men, whereas the calibration abilities were generally better in the models for women.ConclusionsColorectal cancer risk prediction models were developed from large-scale, population-based data. Those models can be used for identifying high risk groups and developing preventive intervention strategies for colorectal cancer.
Highlights
Colorectal cancer is one of the most rapidly increasing cancer in the Korean population, with annual percent changes of 6.2% in men and 6.8% in women between 1999 and 2009 [1]
Recent literature suggests that the distribution of molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer differ by subsites [12,13]
We reported that risk factor profiles differed by sex, and by the anatomical locations of the colorectal cancer [14]
Summary
Colorectal cancer is one of the most rapidly increasing cancer in the Korean population, with annual percent changes of 6.2% in men and 6.8% in women between 1999 and 2009 [1]. Several risk prediction models for colorectal cancer have been developed and validated in different populations [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]. The major roles of risk prediction models are: 1) to identify individuals at high risk of developing the disease who can be offered individually tailored clinical management, targeted screening and interventions to reduce the burden of disease and 2) to identify new risk factors for the disease through research [11]. We reported that risk factor profiles differed by sex, and by the anatomical locations of the colorectal cancer [14]
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