Risk of severe dengue during secondary infection: a population-based cohort study in Taiwan

Abstract

BackgroundDengue poses a significant public health concern. Secondary dengue infections with different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been linked to an increased risk of severe dengue. This study aimed to assess the risk of severe dengue during secondary infection in Taiwan. MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database to identify dengue cases with secondary dengue infection born after 1944 from 2014-2015. Ten matched patients with primary infection were selected as controls using propensity score matching for each secondary dengue infection case. The odds ratio (OR) for severe dengue in secondary versus primary infections was calculated using conditional logistic regression. ResultsThis study included 357 cases with secondary dengue infection and 3,570 matched controls. The risk of severe dengue was found to be 7.8% in individuals with secondary infection, compared to 3.8% in those with primary dengue infection. Secondary infection significantly increased the risk of severe dengue (OR 2.13, 95% CI: 1.40 - 3.25, P = 0.0004). Notably, a significant association between secondary infection and severe dengue was observed only when the interval between the first and secondary infection was greater than two years (OR 3.19, 95% CI 2.04 – 5.00, P <0.0001). ConclusionSecondary dengue infection significantly increases the risk of severe disease in Taiwan, particularly when the interval between infections is over two years.Healthcare professionals should maintain heightened vigilance for individuals with a history of previous dengue infection, particularly if their initial diagnosis was more than two years prior.