Risk of infection of white-nose syndrome in North American vespertilionid bats in Mexico

Abstract

Emerging diseases in wildlife pose challenges for conservation due to their usually rapid spread and high cause of mortality. The transmission of these diseases is a complex ecological process that involves interactions between groups of individuals, particularly in gregarious species. White-nose syndrome, caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, is increasingly infecting species of vespertilionid North American bats causing, in some cases, high population mortality. In this study, we modeled ecological niches projected as potential distributions for three strains of P. destructans (Asian, European and North American) and a group of species of verpertilionid bats in North America. Our model showed that the ecological niches of North American and Asian fungi strains are projected to expand into new geographic areas, with statistical significance between the two strains. In addition, our model identified the presence of all three strains of fungi in areas where the fungus has previously been documented as well as new suitable climatic areas for the establishment of P. destructans in North America: large regions of the central USA and highlands of Mexico in the Peninsula of Baja California, the Sierra Madre Occidental and Oriental, and Transvolcanic Mexican Belt. Our models identified 10 species of vespertilionid bats distributed similarly to P. destructans. Bats had a high risk of infection with WSN and a strong likelihood of dispersing the fungus.