Risk of High-Grade Cervical Dysplasia in Older Patients With a Positive Human Papilloma Virus Cervical Screening Test

Abstract

Introduction The Australian National Cervical Screening Program has mandated management algorithms that are uniform across all age groups, but evidence is emerging that perhaps the risk of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) may decrease in the postmenopausal period. Objective The aim of the study is to identify if patients ≥50 years of age referred to a tertiary colposcopy service have a different risk of HSIL or greater (+). Materials and Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 3239 referrals to a hospital colposcopy clinic with a positive human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening test between December 2017 and May 2023. Patients were included if they were aged 25–74 years, had a cervix, and completed an outpatient colposcopic assessment. Medical records were analyzed to determine the incidence of HSIL+ for each age group and compared them using χ2 and multivariable regression. Results The overall incidence of invasive carcinoma was 0.93% and HSIL/adenocarcinoma-in-situ was 20.38%. Patients ≥50 years of age were less likely to have HSIL or greater diagnosed than those <30 (p < .0001) or those 30–49 (p < .0001), even after considering referral HPV subtype and reflex cytology (OR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.34–0.59). The risk of invasive carcinoma in those aged ≥50 was no different than those aged 30–49 (p = .982). Conclusions We observed a lower incidence of HSIL or greater with increasing age even after considering referral HPV subtype and reflex cytology. As further data emerges regarding the risk of high-grade disease in those ≥50 years of age, refinement of the risk-based screening algorithm to account for advanced age may be required.