Risk of Global Economic Crisis in 2022 and the Mechanism of Transmission of Economic Shocks between the Main Areas of the Global Economy

Abstract

Goal – the aim of the study is to analyze the main economic areas of the global economy in terms of the possibility of transferring the crisis in relation to the current global economic situation. Research methodology – the analysis conducted was based on literature research; the empirical analysis used causation in the Granger sense and Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient. Score/results – The existence of the so–called “locomotive effect” was observed for a group of countries: USA–CSSA, CSSA–USA, EA–LA, EA–CSSA, LA–EA, CSSA–EA, MECA–LA, MECA–CSSA, LA–MECA, CSSA–MECA, EDA–CSSA, CSSA–EDA, LA–CSSA, CSSA–LA, meaning a positive domestic shock transmitted to the economic partner, among the countries studied, the analysis is carried out based on annual data of GDP values as a measure of economic activity. CSSA remains the safest economic area and also the most neutral in view of the current global economic and political situation. In the WPE, there is a maximum [full] correlation of 1 for: EDA–USA, MECA–EA, EDA–EA, MECA–EDA and EDA–MECA. These are currently the most dangerous and crisis–prone areas, with potential for transferring crises between them. It is facilitated by territorial cohesion and the geopolitical situation between countries in these economic regions. Relatively high correlations can also be observed in these areas between the analyzed factors: IMP, IMG, IDCF and PC. The risk of transferring a crisis resulting from war between the areas mentioned is the highest here. Other correlations in terms of: USA–EA, USA–LA, EA–USA, LA–USA, LA–EDA, EDA–LA remain at weak or average levels. This is influenced by geographic distance and the lack of strong economic and political ties. Originality/value – the originality of the study results from the topic undertaken. Identification of potential crisis areas and channels of crisis transmission in the current global geopolitical situation constitutes an added value.