Risk of death by age and gender from CoVID-19 in Peru, March-May, 2020.

Cesar Munayco,Eduardo A Undurraga,Kenji Mizumoto,Amna Tariq,Gerardo Chowell

doi:10.18632/aging.103687

Abstract

Peru implemented strict social distancing measures during the early phase of the epidemic and is now experiencing one of the largest CoVID-19 epidemics in Latin America. Estimates of disease severity are an essential indicator to inform policy decisions about the intensity and duration of interventions needed to mitigate the outbreak. Here we derive delay-adjusted case fatality risks (aCFR) of CoVID-19 in a middle-income country in South America.We utilize government-reported time series of CoVID-19 cases and deaths in Peru stratified by age group and gender.As of May 25, 2020, we estimate the aCFR for men and women at 10.8% (95%CrI: 10.5-11.1%) and 6.5% (95%CrI: 6.2-6.8%), respectively, whereas the overall aCFR was estimated at 9.1% (95%CrI: 8.9-9.3%). Our results show that senior individuals have been the most severely affected by CoVID-19, particularly men, with an aCFR of nearly 60% for those aged 80- years. We also found that men have a significantly higher cumulative morbidity ratio across most age groups (proportion test, p-value< 0.001), with the exception of those aged 0-9 years.The ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic is generating a substantial mortality burden in Peru. Senior individuals, especially those older than 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the CoVID-19 pandemic.

Highlights

As of May 25, 2020, more than 5.5 million CoVID-19 cases and about340,000 deaths have been reported from almost every country and territory around the globe [1, 2]
The ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic has imposed a substantial burden on health systems, economies, and societies globally, and there are strong indicators pointing to a disproportionate impact on low- and middle-income countries [3,4,5]
Many South American countries imposed strict control measures, including travel bans, school closures, and lockdowns early in the epidemic, the magnitude of their epidemics rival those observed in European hotspots, with CoVID-19 cases and death counts increasing rapidly in the region [1, 5]

Summary

INTRODUCTION

As of May 25, 2020, more than 5.5 million CoVID-19 cases and about340000 deaths have been reported from almost every country and territory around the globe [1, 2]. Many South American countries imposed strict control measures, including travel bans, school closures, and lockdowns early in the epidemic, the magnitude of their epidemics rival those observed in European hotspots, with CoVID-19 cases and death counts increasing rapidly in the region [1, 5]. Age adjusted CFR estimates from Peru can be useful to gauge the mortality impact of the pandemic and assess whether the severity patterns are consistent in the South America, a region with fragmented health systems, vast inequality, and high poverty rates. Given the importance of timely CFR estimates for public health decision making, we provide real-time estimates of adjusted age-specific CFR during the CoVID-19 epidemic in Peru, through May 25, 2020 to assess the pandemic’s severity variation in this southern hemisphere setting, which helps pinpoint the most vulnerable segments of the population and tailor public health interventions

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

CONCLUSIONS

MATERIALS AND METHODS