Risk of Climate Change for Hydroelectricity Production in China Is Small but Significant Reductions Cannot Be Precluded for More Than a Third of the Installed Capacity

Abstract

AbstractTo support the implementation of China's carbon neutrality target, this study assesses the impact of future climate change on hydroelectricity production (HP) in China. We developed a hydropower database for mainland China, which covers 92% of the installed capacity indicated by national statistics (352 GW in 2018). An HP model was applied to simulate monthly HP by 3,521 conventional plants at different levels of global warming (1°, 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C above preindustrial) using an ensemble of monthly streamflow time series computed by five global hydrological models (GHMs), where each global hydrological model was driven by four global climate models (GCMs). With a probability of 80%, limiting global warming to 1.5°C will constrain changes of national HP to the range of −1.4%–2.5% as compared to near‐present climate (1°C). In case of a 3°C world, this range more than doubles. HP is projected to likely increase in the two provinces Sichuan and Yunnan that encompass more than half of China's installed capacity. However, with a probability of about 10%, HP may decrease in a 3°C world by more than 15% in five provinces, and 40% of the installed capacity may suffer from an HP decrease of more than 5%. The uncertainty of projected HP changes is mainly due to the GCMs. We found that relative changes in annual HP and streamflow often differ in magnitude and direction as HP depends on seasonal streamflow patterns and installed capacities that determine the maximum flow through the turbines.