Risk Measurement of Investment Portfolio Using Var and Cvar from The Top 10 Traded Stocks on the IDX

Abstract

Portfolio investment reflects a commitment to the allocation of funds or resources which is considered a strategic step in managing assets to achieve future profits. This research begins with a careful analysis of a portfolio consisting of the ten best stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Through in-depth processing and analysis of stock data, the dynamics of performance, risk and volatility involved in each investment commitment are revealed. The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) methods at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels take centre stage, highlighting the potential for increased losses as confidence levels increase. In-depth analysis illustrates that CVaR, considering the extreme risks in the distribution, provides a more holistic picture than VaR. With a VaR (99%) value of IDR 84,973,959,424 and CVaR (99%) of IDR 471,795,822,064, this research provides a concrete picture of potential risks at the highest level of confidence. These results confirm that CVaR has a crucial role in identifying and measuring the potential for more significant losses, especially in the face of unexpected market uncertainty. As a guide for investment decision makers, this research forms an important basis for carefully considering the level of risk and potential return at various levels of confidence. This allows the development of smarter and more informed investment strategies.