Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework for Operating a Multi-Purpose Hydropower Reservoir During Flooding and High Inflow Events, Case Study: Cheakamus River System

Abstract

Operating a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir during flooding and high inflow events is a challenging and complicated task. Three main elements contribute to this complexity: addition of minimizing flood damage to the set of objectives of the problem, exponential boost in inflow forecast uncertainty-driven risks as a result of the high sensitivity of the outcomes to inflow forecasts, and the unavoidable necessity of making a decision within a very short time although the decision making process requires comprehensive analysis. A Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) framework as a pre-developed guideline for operational planners might be the only solution to the problem.We explain the structure of such a framework in the literature, and implement an RIDM framework for the Cheakamus River System. In developing the RIDM framework in our study, we make several modifications to the previous RIDM framework for Cheakamus River System by minimizing subjectivity in the decision making process, incorporating comprehensive risk consideration in the process, and taking account of the entire range of operational alternatives. We also explain how the framework could be developed for other case studies.