Risk hierarchy analysis of international railway container transportation

Abstract

The implementation of the "the Belt and Road" strategy has deepened the ex change of goods between countries and regions along the “Silk road economic belt”. Until April 2019, China launched more than 15,000 trains of the international container trains. Because there are many kinds of transportation goods, many transportation segment, the whole transport process has to face multiple risk threats. According to the "5M" theory, this paper constructs a transportation risk indicator system with 5 first-level indicators and 28 second-level indicators, applicate AHP to calculate the weights of all indicators, selected 17 indicators. Using ISM, the risk hierarchy structure is determined and a three-level interpretative structure model is established. The first level is the surface factor, which including three indicators, if the surface risk factors are identified, it means that the entire transportation system is facing a serious risk crisis. The second level is the middle level factor, which including 11 indicators. The middle factors are risk factors for releasing the crisis signal which is usually closely related to the macro policy changes and the organizational capabilities and resilience of each link. The third level is the deep-seated factor, including three indicators, which requires risk managers to take counter-measures of risk warning and prevention.