Abstract
Agriculture is the origin of existence and survival in any society. However, this sector is always associated with risk and uncertainty, and farmers are faced with many challenges. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to explore the (production) risk factors of irrigated wheat production systems among farmers in Kermanshah province, Iran. The exploratory nature of this study on the one hand and the need for expert judgment on the other hand necessitated a Delphi research design. Thus, this study utilized a three-round Delphi technique. The population comprised of 10 subject-matter experts (SME) and 32 agricultural extension experts in two climates (warm and semi-arid and cold and moderate) in seven counties in Kermanshah province. A purposeful (complete) sample of 42 experts in the agricultural field participated in this study. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed on the basis of the Delphi technique. The findings indicated that, after three rounds of Delphi technique, the panel members reached a consensus on 75 factors which were categorized into biological, natural, managerial, and technological-structural groups for production risk. The results of this research provide useful insights for researchers, extension agents, and farmers.
Highlights
The nature of agricultural activities is mainly based on the risk, and agriculture is always known as an activity that is associated with various uncertainties and risks [1,2,3,4,5,6], because, on one hand, it depends on the nature of the weather conditions [7,8] and on the other, it has shown vulnerability against biological factors such as pests and plant diseases
The results of this section indicated the identification of 32 main sources of production risk of irrigated wheat
The findings indicated that, after three rounds of Delphi, the panel members reached a consensus on 75 factors which were categorized into biological, natural, managerial, and technological-structural for production risk
Summary
The nature of agricultural activities is mainly based on the risk, and agriculture is always known as an activity that is associated with various uncertainties and risks [1,2,3,4,5,6], because, on one hand, it depends on the nature of the weather conditions [7,8] and on the other, it has shown vulnerability against biological factors such as pests and plant diseases. Identifying risk sources and ways to manage them should be investigated and given serious consideration [13]. This means that risk management needs to be given more attention at the farm level. Risk management has become an essential tool for farmers to anticipate, avoid, and respond to shocks [14]. For example, have a systemic component in that they affect most farmers across an entire region or country. Others, such as hail, are more sporadic and easier to collect [14]
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