Risk factors and prognostic implications for new-onset heart failure with ventricular pacing - a nationwide study

Abstract

Abstract Background Studies have shown that the incidence of new-onset heart failure (HF) is higher for patients receiving pacemaker therapy with traditional right ventricular pacing, compared to age matched controls. Conduction system pacing may overcome this, but is more expensive and technically challenging. Objectives To investigate risk factors and implications for long-term prognosis of new-onset HF in patients after pacemaker-implant, with the aim of identifying patients at high risk already prior to device implant. Methods All patients without preexisting HF, who received a pacemaker with a right ventricular lead in Sweden during the period 2005-2020, were identified via the nationwide Pacemaker Registry. Data was crossmatched with the population registry and national disease registries. Outcome was new-onset HF within 5 years post-implant, HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Results In all, 65579 patients met the inclusion criteria (10351 single chamber ventricular and 55228 dual chamber pacemakers). 13792 (21.0%) patients were diagnosed with HF within five years post-implant. Of these, 6244 (45.3%) were hospitalized for HF (see Figure 1). Patients with heart failure were older (80.6 vs. 76.7 years, p<0.001), had a higher burden of comorbidities, and were more likely to die within five years compared to those without HF (41.2% vs. 19.7%, p<0.001). Independent risk factors with more than 25% increased odds ratio for developing heart failure within 5 years included increasing age, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, chronic lung- and kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, and AV block. A combined score using these variables was strongly associated with increased risk of both HF-hospitalization (OR 1.48 [1.46-1.51], p<0.0001) and 5-year mortality (OR 1.81[1.77-1.98], p<0.0001). There was a progressively increasing risk proportional to the summed score. Patients with at least five points on the score had >25% risk of new-onset heart failure within five years, and patients with at least seven points had >25% risk of new-onset heart failure within two years. In figure 2 we present a suggested score model, based on the results. Conclusions Pacemaker therapy with a lead in the right ventricle was associated with >20% risk of new-onset HF within five years. This in turn was associated with higher risk of death. Based on clinical risk factors, our proposed score can be used to identify patients at high risk for new-onset heart failure. These patients may be eligible for conduction system pacing or resynchronisation therapy. Randomized trials are needed to determine if a score-based pacing strategy (right ventricular or conduction system pacing) approach results in better clinical outcome, and if it is cost-effective.Included patients and risk of HF hosp.Decision algorithm based on results