Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 continues to impact on smallholder livelihoods, to constrain development of the poultry production sector, and to cause occasional human fatalities. HPAI H5N1 outbreaks have occurred in a variety of ecological systems with economic, agricultural and environmental differences. This review aimed to identify common risk factors amongst spatial modelling studies conducted in these different agro-ecological systems, and to identify gaps in our understanding of the disease’s spatial epidemiology. Three types of variables with similar statistical association with HPAI H5N1 presence across studies and regions were identified: domestic waterfowl, several anthropogenic variables (human population density, distance to roads) and indicators of water presence. Variables on socio-economic conditions, poultry trade, wild bird distribution and movements were comparatively rarely considered. Few studies have analysed the HPAI H5N1 distribution in countries such as Egypt and Indonesia, where HPAIV H5N1 continues to circulate extensively.

Highlights

  • Pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) type H5N1 causes a highly contagious disease of poultry that was first observed in the province of Guangdong, China, in 1996 [1]

  • Some mortality has been observed in duck farms, Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 infections are generally far less pathogenic in domestic waterfowl than they are in chickens [25]

  • This translates into a broad-scale match between the distribution of domestic ducks and areas where HPAIV H5N1 persisted throughout Asia [27,28]

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Summary

Introduction

Pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) type H5N1 causes a highly contagious disease of poultry that was first observed in the province of Guangdong, China, in 1996 [1]. During late 2003 and 2004, the virus spread extensively and caused new outbreaks in China, and in several other Asian countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Lao, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. In many countries where it was introduced, HPAIV H5N1 only persisted for a few months, and was soon eradicated To date it persists endemically or shows occasional resurgence in a limited number of countries including Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Vietnam [3,4]

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