Abstract
In order to achieve the sustainable development of energy, Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission construction projects are being established in China currently. Their high-tech nature, the massive amount of money involved, and the need for multi-agent collaboration as well as complex construction environments bring many challenges and risks. Risk management, therefore, is critical to reduce the risks and realize sustainable development of projects. Unfortunately, many traditional risk assessment methods may not perform well due to the great uncertainty and randomness inherent in UHV power construction projects. This paper, therefore, proposes a risk evaluation index system and a hybrid risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk of UHV projects and find out the key risk factors. This model based on a cloud model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method combines the superiority of the cloud model for reflecting randomness and discreteness with the advantages of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in handling uncertain and vague issues. For the sake of proving our framework, an empirical study of “Zhejiang-Fuzhou” UHV power transmission construction project is presented. As key contributions, we find the risk of this project lies at a “middle” to “high” level and closer to a “middle” level; the “management risk” and “social risk” are identified as the most important risk factors requiring more attention; and some risk control recommendations are proposed. This article demonstrates the value of our approach in risk identification, which seeks to improve the risk control level and the sustainable development of UHV power transmission construction projects.
Highlights
With the rocketing increase in energy demand in China, there are many barriers in achieving the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society, such as the energy shortage, structural imbalances, low efficiency, serious pollution and so on
Considering the nature of risk management, and the features of fuzzy theory and cloud model, this study develops a holistic risk evaluation model using a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method and cloud model to estimate the construction risks, especially for a situation characterized by incomplete data, vagueness, uncertainty, randomness and discreteness
The internal environment of a Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission construction project is the basis of operation control, which directly affects the implementation of the objective
Summary
With the rocketing increase in energy demand in China, there are many barriers in achieving the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society, such as the energy shortage, structural imbalances, low efficiency, serious pollution and so on. These sophisticated methods deliver reliable risk results only through extensive numerical data, which is impossible to obtain for UHV power construction projects due to the great uncertainty inherent in construction. These traditional methods cannot cope with problems that are vague and uncertain in nature. The integration of fuzzy theory in project risk management has allowed obtaining satisfactory results by effectively addressing subjective factors and uncertainties associated with construction activities It ignores the randomness and discreteness of the system, since the uncertain randomness and discreteness of problems are unavoidable in the assessment process.
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