Abstract
The internal mechanism affecting life loss caused by a dam-break flood is complicated. On the basis of analyzing the risk formation path, a risk evaluation indicator system was established which included the hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors. Variable Fuzzy Sets theory was introduced into the risk evaluation of life loss risk grades and applied to eight collapsed dams in China. According to the sequence of the risk grades of these dams, the evaluation result was mainly consistent with the actual mortality ranking sequence, showing that the model could be effectively applied to the risk evaluation of life loss in dam-break events. Aimed at the problem of large differences in the downstream population distribution of dams in China, this manuscript suggested that 10,000 people should be the basis for the grouping operation of dams in the risk evaluation. These Variable Fuzzy evaluation models and grouping suggestions could help stakeholders to allocate the funds for dam reinforcement more accurately and provide a scientific basis for the study of dam-break life loss and dam risk management.
Highlights
By the year 2013, the number of dams in China had exceeded 98,000, ranking first in the world [1].due to specific historical reasons, a large number of the dams had various problems, such as standard low flood control and poor quality both in design and construction, generating serious threats to people’s lives downstream
Based on the fuzzy uncertainty of the risk indicator of life loss caused by the dam-break flood, this manuscript puts forward a comprehensive evaluation model of life loss caused by dam-break flood disaster based on the Variable Fuzzy Set theory [28,29], which can be used to calculate and evaluate the corresponding characteristics of the risk grades of life loss [30]
Mortality rate concerning all the eight reservoirs with varying degrees serves as a straightforward indicator. It can be seen from the figure that the ranking of the risk of life loss expressed by the level eigenvalue is basically the same as the ranking trend according to the size of the mortality rate
Summary
By the year 2013, the number of dams in China had exceeded 98,000, ranking first in the world [1]. In 1993, Dekay of Colorado University cooperated with McClelland of the Reclamation Bureau [11] to propose an empirical estimation formula describing the non-linear relationship between life loss and the population at risk Most of these studies are based on empirical regression and data statistics. The Variable Fuzzy evaluation model corrects the solidification of the membership degree in traditional fuzzy mathematics theory by using a dynamic membership function In this manuscript, considering the fuzzy uncertainty of the influential factors of a dam-break life loss and the high non-linearity and correlation between hazards, exposure, and vulnerability factors, the risk evaluation model of the dam-break life loss in China was established based on the analysis of the risk formation path and the Variable Fuzzy Sets theory. In the form of the above evaluation model and risk ranking results, stakeholders could formulate plans for dam reinforcement and risk management
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