Risk Decision-Making of Multiobjective Chaos Search in Construction Projects considering Loss Level and Probability Level

Abstract

In engineering projects, the coordination and management of multiple objectives is an important part of project management, which has a direct impact on the realization of objectives in terms of project duration, cost, and quality. The current engineering project investment presents the characteristics of large scale, long period, and many risks, which puts forward higher requirements for the multiobjective coordinated management of the project. Therefore, the analysis and optimization of the various objectives of the engineering project is the basis for achieving multiobjective balance and coordination. The comprehensive consideration of the risks faced by the engineering project and the dynamics of the environment in which it is located can make the objective optimization more realistic. On the basis of risk identification and risk evaluation, this paper is committed to considering multiple objective factors that affect the outcome of risk decision-making to achieve the optimization of decision-making schemes and applies multiobjective genetic algorithm to the optimization of decision-making schemes, thus finding a way to optimize the decision-making scheme. This paper analyzes the research progress and status of construction project risk management decision and multiobjective evolutionary algorithm and points out the imperfections of the current research. Then it introduces the related theory of construction project risk management decision, the related terminology of multiobjective optimization problem and the method used in this paper —the principle, process, and characteristics of genetic algorithm and prepares for the following problem solving. In this paper, a mathematical model for multiobjective decision-making of engineering project risk management is established, and the multiobjective genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. Through the analysis of examples, a series of Pareto optimal solutions with good convergence and diversity are obtained, the best combination of various risk control measures is found, and three goals of risk evaluation value, management cost, and risk loss are achieved. The two models with or without risk correlation present certain differences, the model with correlation considered is more accurate and applicable than the model without correlation considered in the existing research.