Abstract

With the increasing of construction of logistics parks, it is essential for commercial real estate project to study on risk decision to avoid redundant and blind construction. Based on risk essence, the paper analyses the attitude of investment decision-makers on risk benefits. Finally, the paper improves the expected utility theory and applies the prospect theory to risk decision of commercial real estate project to provide scientific and objective basis for Project Investment Decision.

Highlights

  • The commercial real estate is a multidisciplinary and multi-industry comprehensive and cross complex with wide coverage and high technology content

  • With the increasing of construction of logistics parks, it is essential for commercial real estate project to study on risk decision to avoid redundant and blind construction

  • Practices indicate that one successful risk decision depends on that whether the decision maker will chose reasonable risk analysis methods and decision methods, as well as on the decision maker’s personal attitudes on risk, his personal experiences, ability, characters and other factors

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Summary

Introduction

The commercial real estate is a multidisciplinary and multi-industry comprehensive and cross complex with wide coverage and high technology content. The construction of commercial real estate is complicated system engineering, and the manager will face many risk factors and decision problems from the project approval to the delivery and use of project. Practices indicate that one successful risk decision depends on that whether the decision maker will chose reasonable risk analysis methods and decision methods, as well as on the decision maker’s personal attitudes on risk, his personal experiences, ability, characters and other factors. The latter factors are seldom involved in past researches on risk decision methods

Nature of Risk
Expected Utility Theory
The Prospect Theory has Improved the Utility Theory
Application of Prospect Theory
Conclusions
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