Risk Calculator for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Preterm Neonates: A Prospective Observational Study.

Abstract

To determine the incidence, risk factors, and accuracy of a previously published risk estimator in predicting Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in a very preterm cohort from India. A single-center prospective observational study was conducted in preterm neonates born at 23-30 wk of gestation with a birth weight of 501-1249g. The incidence and risk factors of BPD were evaluated, and the accuracy of BPD prediction at six pre-specified time points using the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) BPD risk estimator was assessed by comparing the estimated risk with the observed rates. A total of 310 neonates with mean gestation age of 28.7±1.5 wk and birth weight of 1023.6±171.4g were enrolled in the study. The study cohort had 49.7% males and 32.3% neonates requiring resuscitation. Any BPD was observed in 54 (17.4%) neonates with severity being mild, moderate, and severe in 29 (53.7%), 17 (31.5%), and 8 (14.8%) neonates respectively. Hundred (32.3%) neonates died before discharge from the hospital. Sepsis, patent ductus arteriosus, retinopathy of prematurity, intraventricular hemorrhage, and blood transfusion were significant risk factors for the development of BPD. The calculator was accurate for the prediction of death or moderate-severe BPD on days 1 and 3 with the area under the curve of 0.82 and 0.77 respectively. The NICHD BPD estimator helped to accurately predict moderate-severe BPD early in Indian preterm infants.