Risk-based methodology to optimize geotechnical site investigations in tunnel projects

Abstract

The scope of geotechnical investigations in tunnel projects is generally driven by the allocated resources rather than the expected variability in the ground conditions. Uncertainties in ground conditions may lead to poor decisions in project planning and active risk management. This paper presents a systematic and rational methodology to identify priority locations of additional geotechnical investigations for soft ground tunneling applications based on tunnel risks, site conditions, and project-related constraints. The methodology is applied to the cutter tool wear risk and quantifies the uncertainty in soil abrasivity index (SAI), the relevant geotechnical parameter. Preliminary geotechnical investigation data and site conditions from an actual tunnel project in an urban environment are used to illustrate the proposed methodology and demonstrate its effectiveness. Pluri-Gaussian simulation and sequential Gaussian simulation are used to characterize the 3D spatial variability in soil units and soil abrasivity, respectively, along the tunnel alignment. The study integrates geospatial assessments of SAI uncertainty and consequences of tool wear to develop an R index map that delineates the impact of uncertainty in tool wear rate. Project constraints of drilling accessibility and budget are incorporated in the R index map to find locations of additional geotechnical investigations. The study simulates a virtual sampling of additional boreholes and quantifies the reduction in uncertainty in tool wear rate and tunnel boring machine (TBM) intervention locations. Additional investigation at priority locations is found to reduce cutterhead intervention location uncertainty by approximately 90 rings (160 m). Further, integrating the uncertainty in tool travel distance is found to influence the cutterhead intervention location uncertainty by approximately 40 rings.