Abstract
Preventing and controlling the risk of importing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly become a major concern. In addition to air freight, ocean-going ships play a non-negligible role in spreading COVID-19 due to frequent visits to countries with infected populations. This research introduces a method to dynamically assess the infection risk of ships based on a data-driven approach. It automatically identifies the ports and countries these ships approach based on their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) data and a spatio-temporal density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (ST_DBSCAN) algorithm. We derive daily and 14 day cumulative ship exposure indexes based on a series of country-based indices, such as population density, cumulative confirmed cases, and increased rate of confirmed cases. These indexes are classified into high-, middle-, and low-risk levels that are then coded as red, yellow, and green according to the health Quick Response (QR) code based on the reference exposure index of Wuhan on April 8, 2020. This method was applied to a real container ship deployed along a Eurasian route. The results showed that the proposed method can trace ship infection risk and provide a decision support mechanism to prevent and control overseas imported COVID-19 cases from international shipping.
Highlights
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China [1]
It was found that COVID-19 is a coronavirus with high person-to-person transmissibility and infectivity, probably higher than the previously identified Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) [2,3,4,5]
According to currently available data published by different research teams, the average basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 indicates that the average secondary infections produced by infected people without intervention may be as high as 3.28 [3]
Summary
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China [1]. As there is still no specific antiviral agents and vaccines available to treat this new infection, preventing person-to-person transmission measures, such as keeping suitable social distance, family quarantine, and even locking down entire cities to restrict the flow of people, have so far become the main, if , choice for many countries [6]. These measures are still not sufficient to stop the rapid spread of this coronavirus at a global scale. ThTehseesedadtaatsaestestsaarerefufurrththeerruusseedd ttoo search foorr tthhee CCOOVVIDID‐1-199ppanandedmemicicstastiasttiisctsicosf othf ethrelraeteladted cocuonutrnitersiedsudruinrigngthtehveivsiitsiptepreioridodofoaf sahsihpipbybytaktaiknigngadavdavnatnatgaegeofotfhtehetidtiydcyocvoivdi1d919RRpapcakcakgageewwhhicihchhas thehaosbtjehcetiovbejeocftipvreoovfidpirnogvitdraingsptraarnenspt arcecnetssactocevsasrtioouvasraiuouthsoaruitahtoivrieta, ptiuveb,lipculyblaivclayilaavbaleilaCbOleVCIDO-V1I9Dd‐ata so1u9rcdeastatstohuerceosuanttrtyh-elecvoeulnotnrya‐ledvaeilyobnaasidsa[i1l6y].baTshiser[e1f6o]r. eT,htheriesfaolrleo,wthsisusaltloowdesruivsetodadielyrivCeOdVaIiDly-19 exCpoOsVuIrDe ‐i1n9dexpesosausrwe einlldaesxethseaspawset l1l4asdathyecpuamstu1la4tidvaeyecxupmosuularetivinedeexxpeoss.uAren ienxdpeoxseus.reAinndexepxodseunroetes theinddeegxrdeeenooftaesshthipe dexegproeseedoftao sinhfiepcetexdpocsoeudnttorieinsf(ewcthedichcowuniltlrbiees e(xwphliacihnewdililnbme oexrepldaeintaeidl iinn tmheorneext secdteitoanils)i.nAthsepnreexvtiosuecstliyonms)e.nAtisopnreedv,itohuesllyasmt estnetpionisetdo, tthakeelatshtesetexppoissutoretaiknedethxeoefxWpoushuaren ionndeAxporfil 8, 20W20u, whahneonnthAepcriitly8,e2n0d2e0d, witshelonctkhdeocwityn,eansdaedreiftesrleonckcedoinwdne,xa.sTahriesfreerfeenrceenicnedienxd.eTxhiiss arepfpelrieendcetoincdlaesxsify theis1a4pdpaliyedcutmo cullaastsiivfey ethxpe o1s4udreayincduemxeuslaintitvoetehxrpeeosduirffeeirnednet xreisskinletvoetlhsr. eTehdeisfeferriesnktlreivseklsle, vtoeglse.tThheresweith therisskhiple’vseclhs,artoagcteetrhiesrticws,itahrethfeursthhiepr’sencchoadraecdteirnitsoticQs,Racroedfeusrtwheitrhernecdo,dyeedlloinwt,ooQr gRreceondecsolworitshforredh,igh risyke,lmlowid,dolregrriseken, acnodlolroswforrihskig,hrersipske,cmtividedlyl.e risk, and low risk, respectively
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