Risk Assessment of Scientific and Technological Cooperation among RCEP Countries Based on Cloud Model

Abstract

Accurate risk assessment of international scientific and technological (S&T) cooperation is significant to international cooperation. In this paper, 5 risk dimensions with respect to the political, economic, social, cultural as well as technological of the regional comprehensive economic partnership countries (RCEP) are selected to establish a proper S&T cooperation index system for risk assessment. To calculate the weight of each index, a cross-entropy combination weighting method is proposed based on the combination weighting method of game theory. Furthermore, the standard cloud model is constructed by using the golden ratio, and the risk of S&T cooperation among the RCEP countries is analyzed by the cloud model. The results show that the combination weighting method proposed in this paper is effective, and its calculation is simpler than that of the game theory combination weighting method. Besides, compared with political, social, cultural, and technological indicators, economic indicators have a greater impact on S&T cooperation risk. Furthermore, it is also obtained from the results that the risk of S&T cooperation with China and the Philippines is at a lower to low level and medium to higher level, respectively, and the risk of S&T cooperation with other countries is all at a lower to medium level.