Risk assessment of postoperative pneumonia among children undergoing otolaryngologic surgery: Derivation and validation of a preoperative risk profiling

Abstract

BackgroundPostoperative pneumonia is a serious complication because it may be associated with morbidity, mortality and substantially increased cost of surgical care. Risk of postoperative pneumonia varies across surgical specialties, although its incidence and risk factors in pediatric otolaryngology have not been comprehensively elucidated. ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with postoperative pneumonia and determine whether a subset of children with a disproportionate risk of pneumonia can be identified. MethodsUsing the National Surgical Quality Improvement- Pediatric (NSQIP-P) database, we first selected children (N = 17,776; age under 18 years) who underwent inpatient pediatric otolaryngology procedures between 2012 and 2017. Using a random subset of 80% of the study population (derivation cohort), we next developed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pneumonia. We then divided children into risk groups and evaluated whether the Pareto principle applied to distribution of postoperative pneumonia across the risk groups. ResultsAmong the 12,443 children in the derivation cohort, 177 (1.4%) developed postoperative pneumonia. A multivariable risk model identified patients who developed postoperative pneumonia with good accuracy in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Stratification of patients into five mutually exclusive risk groups showed that 71% of postoperative pneumonia occurred in the highest risk group representing 20% the study cohort. Children who developed postoperative pneumonia were 18 times more likely to require an extended hospital length of stay (OR: 18.6; 95%CI: 12.3–28.2), and 7 times more likely to die compared to children without pneumonia (OR: 7.40, 95%CI: 3.53–15.48). ConclusionsWe identified key preoperative risk factors for postoperative pneumonia in children undergoing otolaryngology surgery. A small proportion (20%) of high-risk patients accounted for a large proportion (71%) of postoperative pneumonia indicating an underlying Pareto distribution and underscoring the need for targeted interventions for this “vital few”. Postoperative pneumonia in pediatric otolaryngology surgical inpatients was associated with longer hospital stay and a higher risk of mortality. Clinical trial number and registryNot applicable.