Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

Abstract

Earthquakes often cause secondary disasters in mountainous areas, forming the typical earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain for a long time that results in a series of losses. It is important to improve the risk assessment method from the perspective of cascading effect of such a disaster chain, by strengthening quantitative research on hazards of the debris flows which are affected by landslide volume and rainstorm intensity. Taking Wenchuan County as an example, the risk assessment method for population loss of the disaster chain is established and the risks are evaluated in this paper. The results show that the population loss risk is 2.59–2.71 people/km2 under the scenarios of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and four rainstorm intensities. The impacts of landslide and debris flow after the earthquake were long-term and profound. A comparison of risks caused by each element of the chain revealed that the risk associated with the earthquake accounted for the highest proportion, and landslide and debris flow accounted for 38.82–37.18% and 3.42–7.50%, respectively. As the earthquake intensity increases, the total risk posed by the disaster chain increases significantly. The risk caused by the earthquake is the highest in high earthquake intensity zones; while in the lower-intensity zones, landslides and debris flows pose relatively high risks. The risk assessment results were verified through comparison with actual data, indicating that the simulation results are quite consistent with the existing disaster information and that the risk assessment method based on the earthquake-landslide-debris flow cascade process is significant for future risk estimation.