Mortality risk assessment for earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain under different scenarios: A case study in Wenchuan, China

Abstract

<p>Earthquake-geological disaster chain is one of the common forms of multi-disasters. Primary disaster and secondary disaster are cascaded, which often leads to the expansion of disaster losses. Since the ms8.0 earthquake in 2008, Wenchuan has continued to have landslides and debris flow disasters, which leads to the possibility of forming an earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain, and the risk of population mortality. This study analyzes the key links in the formation of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain in Wenchuan. Then according to the disaster chain assessment method, considering the impact of key factors in the disaster cascade effect, a factor model for the disaster chain is established. And mortality risks of the regional disaster chain under earthquake and heavy rainfall scenarios are quantified. The mortality risks of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain  are 2.82 people/km<sup>2</sup>, 2.90 people/km<sup>2</sup>, 2.92 people/km<sup>2</sup>, and 2.95 people/km<sup>2</sup> with the precipitation probability of 20%, 5%, 2% and 1% . The risk for earthquake accounts for 50.98%~51.54%, the landslide accounts for 33.90%~34.28%, and the debris flow accounts for 14.19~15.12% in Wenchuan. At the township level, the total mortality risks of Yinxing, Yingxiu, and Gengda are at a relatively high level in this region. These results could provide a basis for further investigating and quantifying the risk reduction measurements of earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain based on which effective disaster prevention and control measures can be undertaken.</p>