Risk assessment of PM2.5 from fossil energy consumption on the respiratory health of the elderly

Abstract

Air pollution mainly comes from fossil energy consumption (FEC), and it brings great threat to public health. The respiratory system of the elderly is highly susceptible to the effects of air pollution due to the decline in body functions. PM2.5 is a major component of air pollution, so the study of the impact of PM2.5 generated by FEC on the respiratory health of the elderly is of great significance. The existing studies have focused more on the effect of PM2.5 on mortality, and this paper is a useful addition to the existing studies by examining the effect of PM2.5 from FEC on the health of the elderly from the perspective of prevalence. In this paper, the binary Logistic regression model was used to calculate the exposure-response relationship coefficient for respiratory health in older adults using the data in 2018 from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. And referring to the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China, the changes in the number of older persons suffering from respiratory diseases due to PM2.5 from FEC in the baseline scenario, the clean air scenario, and the on-time peak-clean air scenario were predicted. The results indicated that: (1) PM2.5 from FEC mainly came from coal; (2) PM2.5 from FEC was detrimental to the respiratory health of the elderly, and older seniors were more affected as they age; (3) In the on-time peak-clean air scenario, the number of elderly people suffering from respiratory diseases due to PM2.5 from FEC was growing at the slowest rate. Based on the above results, this paper raised recommendations for reducing the effect of PM2.5 from FEC on the health of the elderly.