Risk assessment of mortality from acute exposure to ambient fine particles based on the different toxicities of chemical compositions in China

Xin Li,Tao Xue,Bo Zheng,Yuxuan Zhang

doi:10.1080/1943815x.2021.1912106

Abstract

ABSTRACT Health risks, including mortalities and morbidities, attributed to chronic or acute exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), have been assessed based on the increments in ambient concentrations. Different toxicities of the various chemical compositions in PM2.5 mixtures have been confirmed by epidemiological evidence but have rarely been considered. We proposed an approach to calculate the disease burden of both the chemical components and concentrations of PM2.5 by combining their pre-established dose–response relationships with a multivariate Gaussian model. We estimated that PM2.5 mixtures account for 0.43 (95% CI: 0.29 ~ 0.56) million premature deaths in China in 2013, consistent with estimates based on single-pollutant models in quantifying the total risk but with differing risk distributions. The residential, an elemental carbon-rich emission sector, accounted for approximately a quarter of PM2.5 emissions, but for half of the premature deaths attributable to air pollution, due to the stronger toxicity of carbonaceous particles than other PM2.5 compositions. Conventional risk assessments based on PM2.5 mass assume equality in the toxicity of PM2.5 compositions and may therefore fundamentally underestimate the skewness of the risk distribution and the adverse health effects of particles from the residential emissions. The different toxicities of the of PM2.5 compositions modify the risk estimates and thus should be included in emission reduction plans.

Highlights

Ambient exposure to air pollutants, especially particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes, including cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (Franklin et al 2007), lung X
The disease burdens were evaluated by pre-established dose– response relationships between the total concentrations of PM2.5 mixtures and the health outcomes of interest, and toxicity was assumed for different chemical compo nents
Our study quantified the mortality from PM2.5 mixtures by individual compo sitions for the first time; the results revealed risk distributions between populations that differed from conventional risk assessments that were based on PM2.5 mass alone

Summary

Introduction

Ambient exposure to air pollutants, especially particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes, including cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (Franklin et al 2007), lung X. Lelieveld et al (2015) estimated that worldwide, longterm exposure to ambient PM2.5 lead to 3.2 (95% CI: 1.5–4.6) million premature deaths per year In those studies, the disease burdens were evaluated by pre-established dose– response relationships between the total concentrations of PM2.5 mixtures and the health outcomes of interest, and toxicity was assumed for different chemical compo nents. Considering the varied mixtures of PM2.5 sources, the specific toxicities of the chemical compositions determine the health risks associated with different emission sectors. To optimize emission reduction policies, the effect modifications exerted by individual PM2.5 compositions should be taken into account in risk assess ments to identify the sources that contribute the most to the disease burden of PM2.5

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Discussion

Conclusion