Risk Assessment of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in China Based on Hazard Risk Theory

Abstract

As a frequent hazard, tropical cyclones have a great impact on the social and economic development of China, which is close to the origin of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean. The primary objective of this study was to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model for tropical cyclone hazards based on natural influencing factors, informing recommendations for hazard prevention and mitigation in affected regions. This research focused on tropical cyclones that made landfall in mainland China and Hainan from 1949 to 2023, utilizing hazard risk theory and classical extreme value theory. The wind speed and rainfall data during the peak cyclone periods (June to October) from 1997 to 2021 gathered from various meteorological stations, as well as altitude and vegetation cover data, were examined. Hierarchical analysis and ArcGIS spatial analysis methods were employed to study the characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones and the comprehensive risk of tropical cyclone hazards, and the regions of China were delineated according to these methods. The results showed that, during the period from 1949 to 2023, the overall number of landfalling tropical cyclones decreased in a fluctuating manner, while the intensity of the cyclones increased. Furthermore, severe typhoons tended to occur more frequently in the summer than autumn with time, intensifying the challenge to resist short-term hazards. Moreover, the hazard-causing factors in areas affected by tropical cyclones displayed an increasing trend from north to south and from west to east. In detail, the regions sensitive to natural hazards were primarily located in the central part of Liaoning province, Tianjin, central and eastern Hebei province, Shandong province, eastern Henan province, central and northern Anhui province, Jiangsu province, and Shanghai, which are characterized by flat terrain and relatively low vegetation cover. Overall, the comprehensive risk of tropical cyclone hazards showed a geographical distribution that decreases from south to north and from east to west, with coastal cities in provinces such as Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang—including Haikou, Zhanjiang, Xiamen, Beihai, and Taizhou—exhibiting the highest levels of risk.