Risk Assessment of Concentralized Distribution Logistics in Cruise-Building Imported Materials

Abstract

The concentralized distribution logistics in cruise-building imported materials (CDL-CIMs) constitute a complex process that requires a high degree of coordination between the multi-link and multi-participator. Delayed delivery, materials damaged, and cost overruns occur because of increasing uncertainties and risks, which may cause disjointedness in cruise construction planning. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a risk assessment of the CDL-CIMs to examine their adverse impacts on cruise construction. Drawing on the advantages of the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) method in risk assessment, an effective and efficient model is developed using a novel hybrid method in this paper, namely the rule-based Bayesian network (RBN) and utility function. The approach has its superiorities in dealing with vague and uncertainty risk information. In addition, the risk parameters from multiple perspectives concerning “occurrence likelihood”, “detection”, “delayed schedule”, “damaged quality”, and “additional cost” facilitate the understanding of the risk characteristics of the CDL-CIMs. The applicability and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by an empirical study for the first cruise constructed in China. The results reveal that the highest-priority threats are the poor management for the actors in the logistics chain (MR1), human errors (MR5), limited storage ability and poor environment of warehouse (ER2), and ignorance of good handling practices during the operation of loading and unloading (OR2). The conclusion can provide insight into the implementation of risk response strategies for cruise-building logistics management in China and other countries.