Risk Assessment Model for the Renewal of Water Distribution Networks: A Practical Approach

Abstract

Water distribution networks are the most important and costly infrastructure assets of the water supply system, responsible for ensuring a steady and reliable water supply to the end user. Consequently, they are fundamental to the socioeconomic prosperity and health of the population. Therefore, determining pipeline renewal strategies is essential in system management. In this article, the development and application of a simplified risk assessment model allowed to highlight the pipes most susceptible to failures and their respective qualitative (water quality index) and financial consequences in a real case study. The results classified approximately 30 km of the distribution network, highlighting 11 pipes with a high risk of failure (≈3.7 km) and an estimated replacement value of BRL 3.2 million, as a priority for renewal in the next 2 years. In small- and medium-sized water distribution systems with limited technical and financial resources, this model can prove highly useful, as it uses free computer tools and a simple methodology that does not depend on statistical models, mathematical estimates, complex regressions, and intensive computational resources.