Risk assessment method for industrial accident consequences and human vulnerability in urban areas

Abstract

The rapid development of chemistry in the past years has caused not only serious environmental pollution but also other disastrous accidents to certain local areas, especially those densely populated areas. Therefore, to prevent the disastrous consequences of those accidents on vulnerable areas effectively, the local government should determine the sensibility of different regions to potential risks. An integrated risk assessment procedure, which considers accident consequences and the vulnerability of local population, is presented and then applied to a small town in China. In this procedure, a hazard map is obtained from the footprint of regional hazards. The population vulnerability is determined on the basis of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability of residents. Population exposure indicators include population density and dwelling environment. Population sensitivity indicators consist of health status, gender, age, and educational level. Adaptability indicators include emergency supplies, medical resources, and traffic convenience. The ArcGIS mapping software is used to overlay the hazard map and the population vulnerability map to generate a composite risk map. The synthesized human vulnerability index system in combination with regional features, overlapping with possible accident ranges, clarifies the visualization of regional risks. This regional risk map can assess the existing land utilization condition; provide a reference for future land planning, transportation line improvement, and medical service configuration; and benefit emergency plan design and material input.