Human vulnerability modeling and risk analysis of railway transportation of hazardous materials

Abstract

People who live in densely populated regions could be at risk of mishaps that occur during hazardous materials (hazmat) transportation. Population vulnerability assessment is an essential parameter for developing risk mitigation strategies to prevent negative consequences of hazmat transportation incidents. In this study, a procedure is developed to estimate the risk of hazmat railway incidents, focused on two parts. First, the most probable and the most dangerous meteorological variables (e.g., stability class, wind speed, solar radiation, etc.) are processed to simulate threat zones and prepare hazard maps using the ALOHA software. Second, sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex, education, household, income, employment, etc.) of the affected population are used to create vulnerability maps along with their weights. As risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability, risk maps are generated by superimposing the hazard and vulnerability maps using ArcGIS software. This procedure is tested in a city in Canada and confirms the significance of integrating population vulnerability in risk assessment by revealing that the areas with high hazards indicated on the hazard maps are not necessarily considered as the areas with high risk indicated on the risk maps. The risk maps generated in this study can be used to provide recommendations to improve land-use planning, enhance the safety of the people, living in higher-risk areas, and prioritize emergency response decisions. The procedure developed in this study can also be applied to different types of railway incidents and other potential incidents in the transportation industry when all the necessary information is available, such as regional meteorological conditions and the characteristics of the affected population.