Risk assessment in photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in China under intuitionistic fuzzy environment

Abstract

The photovoltaic poverty alleviation project (PPAP) supplies clean power and creates considerable income for poor families, which is highly in accord with the concept of coordinated and sustainable development. Appropriate risk assessment is essential for the aversion and the disposal of potential problems, which can minimize the loss and promote the PPAP development. In this paper, a three-phase risk assessment model is proposed: firstly, through an approach combining the project life cycle theory and the Delphi method, 18 risk factors are identified and classified into 4 groups. Next, an extend Decision-Making and Trial Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method under intuitionistic fuzzy environment is employed for weight determination of indexes. Finally, the overall risk level is assessed and the priority disposal sequence of risk factors is highlighted based on the integrated results, the decision-maker preference theory and risk scenario analysis. According to the integrated results, ‘financing difficulties’, ‘no clear division of responsibilities and obligations’, ‘lack of operational experience’ and ‘material supply and installation defects’ are the riskiest factors that urgently need to be solved. Besides, the risk analysis reveals a fact that the overall risk level of China’s PPAPs is relatively high, especially in the technical aspect. Some corresponding suggestions are proposed, which may contribute to rational resource allocation and effective risk prevention.