Abstract
This study examined the postdictive validity of the HCR-20 and the PCL-R in a sample of 45 female ex-patients of Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. For this purpose the HCR-20 and PCL-R were coded using documented information. Recidivism data were collected from the Dutch Ministry of Justice. Interrater reliabilities for the HCR-20 and PCL-R were excellent. Recidivists and non-recidivists differed significantly in terms of their mean scores on the H (historical) scale of the HCR-20. Their mean scores on the other subscales and their total scores on the HCR-20 and the PCL-R showed no significant differences. The base rate for violent recidivism was 16%. Subscale scores and total scores on the HCR-20 and the PCL-R did not postdict violent recidivism. Risk judgments based on these instruments demonstrated the same poor predictive validity. There are indications that historical items, notably substance abuse and a history of violence, have some predictive value for violent outcome in female forensic psychiatric patients.
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