Risk Assessment as a Stage of Risk Management of the Financial and Budgetary Security of the Region in the Context of the Sanctions War of Western Countries against Russia (on the Example of the Kirov Region)

Abstract

The article presents the author’s methodology for assessing the risks of the financial and budgetary security of the region, based on the synthesis of the indicative approach, the minimax method and the method of normalizing indicators. The purpose of the article is to develop a new approach to diagnosing threats to financial and budgetary security, assessing the level of risk of these threats at the mesolevel. During the research, such methods as analysis, synthesis, indicative analysis, minimax method, normalization method were used. The article discusses approaches to the content of risk management activities, examines in detail the issue of the concept of risk, its essential features. Further, the author examines the existing methods for assessing risks in the field of financial and fiscal security, on the basis of which the author proposes a threat-oriented approach to risk assessment, the author examines the main threats to financial and fiscal security that have become more relevant after the introduction of new Western sanctions against Russia against the backdrop of a special military an operation aimed at the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as the protection of the population of Donbass from attacks by neo-Nazi formations. To assess the risk of implementation of each of the threats, indicators were selected, and the average threshold value, minimum and maximum threshold levels were determined. In total, it was proposed to use 10 indicators, with the help of which, on the basis of the developed methodology, an assessment of the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region was carried out. During the diagnostics, the risks of financial and budgetary security of the Kirov region were identified. The methodology proposed in the article can be used by public authorities in order to increase the efficiency of risk management of the financial and budgetary security of the region.