Risk assessment and bi‐level optimization dispatch of virtual power plants considering renewable energy uncertainty

Abstract

Aiming at the effective management of distributed energy resources (DERs), we propose a bi‐level optimization dispatch model which consists of a virtual power plant (VPP) and an independent system operator (ISO) in order to achieve a coordinated dispatch between the upper level objective function of minimizing system's operation cost and the lower level objective function of maximizing the VPP's net profit. However, the VPP's dispatch strategy is variable due to the threat from unavoidable uncertainties including unit outage, load forecast deviation, and renewable energy forecasting error. In order to evaluate the influences of these risks on VPP's dispatch strategy, a proper definition of expected energy not supplied (EENS) and its relationship with VPP's reserve capacity are provided. Also, chance‐constrained programming (CCP) is adopted during the analysis. By including VPP's risk cost into the dispatch model, VPP's dispatch strategy is able to keep a balance between the potential risk and economic profit. In addition, a further discussion regarding the risk cost is conducted in view of renewable energy capacity proportion and the VPP capacity proportion. Based on the analysis results of the case study provided, the proposed model serves as a foundation for VPP's economic and risk‐balanced dispatch.