Abstract
Risk Assessment and Analysis of Diversification of China\'s Round Wood Import
Highlights
With China’s economic growth, the demand for timber maintains a rapid growth rate
According to the State Forestry Administration’s prediction, China's timber consumption is about 500 million m3 in 2013; timber consumption in 2020 is expected to reach 800 million m3
If the round wood import is affected, the logging amount of the domestic forests will be increased, which will weaken the protection of the ecological functions of forest resources and threaten the sustainable use of forest resources
Summary
With China’s economic growth, the demand for timber maintains a rapid growth rate. According to the State Forestry Administration’s prediction, China's timber consumption is about 500 million m3 in 2013; timber consumption in 2020 is expected to reach 800 million m3. How to effectively maintain the stability and risk diversification of round wood import is an important issue of China’s timber supply. Imports of crude oil and timber both are affected by resource stock volume and the exploration cycle is long They are more susceptible to the political, economic and trade policies of the exporting countries. Optimization model of the timber import structure is built on the basis of China’s round wood import risk index. China’s round wood import risk index: HHI is widely used to measure the diversification. This paper measures China’s round wood import risk from three perspectives: political risk, trading risk and resource sustainability. In the course of round wood trade, there are many other factors affect the safety of import, degree of trading freedom and the distance between timberexporting country with China are two relative important factors.
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