Risk Analysis of VLCS based on Trend of Cargo Growth

Abstract

Ever since the 1960s, every 10 to 15 years, the size of ships has been upgraded by 1,000 TEU. This trend of upgrading has been maintained due to advances in ship manufacturer's technologies, and in the carriers' strategy. It is likely that this strategy will accelerate the trend for carriers to operate VLCSs far earlier than was previously expected. The main aims of using larger containerships are to reduce costs with economies of scale, to maintain the monopoly of the major carriers, and to achieve a high rate of growth.This study will analyze the risk factors for the unexpected growth of container ship size to follow an appropriate size in terms of economic efficiency. The growth of containership size in the coming years is guaranteed. The leading countries of this trend are strong at shipbuilding and shipping, and are trying to expand vessel sizes. Most of the advanced shipbuilding companies keep introducing larger vessels into the market. Main hub ports pursue improvements in their capacity for large-sized vessels by enlarging the port area. It should be noted, however, that to maintain their position in the future there must be continuous monitoring, forecasting, and studying of possible strategies.The leaders of shipbuilding and marine logistics in the future, will be those who optimize and apply new initiatives based on an understanding of economic efficiency with regard to the growth of vessel size.